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Just 48 hours to go.

England's opening match in Australia gets under way on the morning of Friday.

With the help of cricket statistics experts, we look at where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It's tough to make runs, right?

Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are bothering to show up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has centred around the perceived challenge of scoring runs, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch labeled a "lush, challenging surface".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, particularly against pace bowling, no country has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for difficult batting conditions.

A common belief from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to more seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing bowling in this country.

Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about solving problems.

When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring problem.

Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 Ashes.

Since then, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and robustness of the 'big three'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 dismissals in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

Aside from Scott Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Neser, Jhye Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home match without Cummins and Hazlewood, and lost, was in the year 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the duo, they have won by a combined 694 runs, featuring a victory against England in Adelaide four years ago.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their star fast bowlers, outcomes have not been affected – The tourists should pay attention.

Tough at the top

Remember when England could not find an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners faster than Watford go through managers.

Not anymore.

Ever since Ben Duckett and Crawley were united at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a reason in Zak Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who famously struck the initial delivery of the previous Ashes for four, has also been identified as having the game for Australian conditions.

His batting average increases when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five various openers in 15 matches.

Uncapped Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 Tests on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It is not just the openers that has posed issues for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the WTC final, then left out completely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, most likely returning to number three.

Across seven matches in the current year, Australia's top three average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

Between two closely matched sides, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful selection punt, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

During that period, spinners have averaged nearly 44 in this country, though Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Another challenge for Lyon is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with ball in hand.

During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against the Indian team, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning the spinner has less space to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a depressing habit of being defeated in an overseas Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since the year 1986.

Recently, that has been followed with a day-night Test in Adelaide.

The visitors have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a venue England have visited 14 times since 1970 and emerged victorious only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the initial three venues on the itinerary are the identical, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

The Perth Test hosts an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It remains a difficult task, though one the visitors tackle with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the venue for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia played a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were surprised by the West Indies.

Similarly, the Australians are now not used to playing daytime Tests at the usual day-night venue Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

The home side have secured victory in four out of five matches played at Perth Stadium, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Each match at the new venue has been won by the team setting a target.

England often overthink floodlit Tests, when statistics indicate the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

The challenge in {day-night matches|