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Elections are now in progress for general elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data suggesting that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again emerge victorious, though experts suggest the party is unlikely of joining the next government.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which previously achieved a shock top result and formed a multi-party right-leaning government that collapsed within a year, is now marginally ahead in surveys and is forecast to win between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-seat house of representatives.

However, PVV's support has dipped since the previous election, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not entering into a coalition with Wilders, who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in the summer over disagreements concerning his controversial immigration plans.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

Following a election period focused on topics such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the country's acute housing shortage, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, expected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the Freedom Party, VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with some facing heavy declines.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

In the proportional Dutch system, gaining just 0.67% of the vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Among the 27 parties participating in the vote – including senior-focused parties, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 could enter the legislature.

This significant division means that no single party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions – typically composed of four parties in recent governments – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the his party ends up as the biggest group yet is excluded from government. But, critics and analysts argue that winning the most seats does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

While the election result is uncertain and government negotiations may require months, political observers suggest that following the most extreme government in its recent history, the future government is likely to be a inclusive coalition headed by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, began operations at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A usually accurate post-voting survey is anticipated soon after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will test possible coalitions that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must face a confidence vote in parliament before taking office.